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Senate Independents Caucus

Buried in the Oregonian's political blog is a story that some of us independents would have liked to read in print:

Keeping their promise to hold open meetings that the press or anyone else can attend, Sen. Ben Westlund and Sen. Avel Gordly held their first caucus meeting Thursday at the capitol. ...

Gordly and Westlund said they feel they represent some 460,000 Oregonians who are either registered independents or not affiliated with a party. Their next challenge: Shaking some money out of the Senate so they can afford caucus staff.

Before this week, 75% of Oregonians (who were members of a major party) were represented by 100% of the caucuses in Salem.  Now, it would seem, independents have a marginally stronger voice. 

But so many questions are still left unanswered...  What will the partisan makeup of the Senate look like in January 2007 and how will that affect Westlund and Gordly's voting strength?  Will Westlund and Gordly vote as a bloc on all, some, or no issues?  Will the caucus be funded?

That last question should mean a lot to the state's independent voters... it would mean having an actual office in Salem without the prerequisute of living in Westlund or Gordly's district.  Or is it not that big of a deal?

What say you?

Speaker Politics: Minnis Out?

The conventional knowledge seems to be that unless the R's pick up a few seats in the House, and assuming she wins her seat, Karen Minnis is doomed to defeat as Speaker and destined to be dethroned so to speak.  These rumors have only been fueled in recent days by the departure of key staff in her office.

This leaves loads of conjecture about who is jockeying to replace her.  Of course Wayne Scott's name comes up, but maybe he's telling the truth- he's happy where he is...content to rule the campaigns and the purse strings, the real power behind the throne, or maybe the iron fist is coming down as we write.

Flores' name has been thrown around as one who covets the spot.  But what got us thinking about speaker politics was the letter sent to representatives last week written by the energetic and progressive Peter Buckley and Sal Esquivel, equally energetic, not a progressive.  Their intentions, they say are a "sincere attempt to address the exact points of contention in the process and suggest solutions."

Interestingly, what they propose is that each member gets two priority bills heard and voted on in committee.  This is huge to legislators too long in the minority.  It's the equivalent to a tall cool drink of water on a hot day, to a cup of cocoa on a cold afternoon, it's the holy grail- getting bills heard is the perogative of the majority.  It's the heart of control.

So what does Sal want?  Why is a guy in the majority "passing out" priority bill hearings and votes like candy?  Could it be that he wants to make new friends to sit with at lunch.  Or is something more sinister occuring- Is Sal trying to build bridges with the democrats to win a coalition speakership?

If so, pretty smart, nothing like offering the now and future minority legislators a voice.  But it raises a more interesting question D's probably aren't ready to consider in their courageous quest to 31- If the D's can't take back the House, who would they most like as Speaker?  Is there a progressive Republican in the House that can bring a few votes and shake up the leadership?  Do we have a second bite at the apple if Merkley and crew fail to bring home the bacon?   

Westlund Out of Race

Vacations are overrated. A person travels to California for a few days, and when they get back, their favorite candidate for governor is no longer a candidate for governor.

Obviously, we've all heard about Westlund's exit from the race for governor. It was picked up yesterday by BlueOregon and LoadedOrygun and the more substantive discussions will no doubt be found there.

Westlund spent plenty of money on signature-gathering. Dozens of green-shirted canvassers on the streets... that's not just persuasion. When they're paid and got clipboards, I count that towards signature-gathering costs. Seems like money was a factor... and HB 2614 simply made that process more expensive.

But then there's been a lot of speculation about Westlund's ulterior motives... suggestions that he's made a deal with Kulongoski or that he aims to springboard to another position. But here's the facts that we all know:

1. Westlund got into the race promising Oregon that he was "in it to win it" and that he would not be a spoiler.

2. Westlund exited the race, saying that he was headed for a spoiler role and had promised not to play that role.

Perhaps amidst all of the innuendo, conspiracy theories, random guesses, conjecture, and accusations... something more simple and more amazing happened: A politician kept his word.

Is it possible?

A tale of two polls

It's poll-time again, although, (yawn) one wonders why?  All we really want is a great few weeks to end the summer in style. 

But, since the crosstabs for the new Rasmussen poll for Oregon gov was in my inbox, curiosity overcame me.  Especially after reading the wonderful questions posed by Loaded Oregon on the union-backed poll claiming Ted is in a strong position.  LO asked, "the question distinguishes between strong and weak support, but the results combine the two. For all we know, Ted has 10% strong support and 30% weak support, meaning his numbers are soft." 

Since their article wasn't updated, we don't know if they answered you LO. So here's what we know

Rasmussen:

How do voters feel about the job Teddy k is doing?

11% strongly approve

45% somewhat approve

19% somewhat disapprove

23% strongly disapprove

2% not sure

Looks very squishy in the middle...

Do people like the candidates?

	Kulongoski	Saxton
Very favorable	13%	12%
Somewhat favorable	43%	31%
Somewhat unfavorable	26%	31%
Very unfavorable	18%	21%
Not sure	1%	6%

Still a majority don't feel strongly. And where's Westlund?   

35% Saxton, 45% Kulongoski, 12% some other candidate, 8% not sure

Why are votes going to Saxton 10% lower in Grove's poll (25%), and undecideds so much higher in hers (+15)?  Is it because Westlund, et al, were named in the Grove poll and not Rasmussen?   Does that mean Saxton's voters move to undecided when Westlund enters. TK doesn't seem as affected (-3).   Is Westlund hurting Saxton more?

clarification: Rasmussen asked, "thinking about the election for Governor, if the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Ron Saxton or Democrat Ted Kulongoski?"

"Other candidate" is +4 from May survey

The Alternate History of Tabored Oregon

TABOR (the ironically-named "TAxpayer's Bill Of Rights") has qualified for the ballot.  Without going into the horrible details of the measure, I'll note that it pegs the state's spending at a level that can only increase with population and inflation rates.

Never mind that TABOR neglects to stipulate that spending must increase at those levels as well... which allows for this little very-generalized trap:

But what really irks is knowing what Oregon would be like today if TABOR had been in existence earlier, say 1862.  Let's step into the Way-Back Machine and find out, shall we?

1862: Governor John Whiteakre addresses the legislature's third session, and announces that the spending for the biennium reached $55,372.  That's a pretty good load of cash back then.  With the population booms and runaway inflation rates, it'll no doubt increase dramatically.  The US Census reported Oregon's 1860 population at 52,465.  In 1870 it was 90,923.  Interpolating a value for 1862 gets us a population of 60,156.  (Assume an increase of 3,845 each year.)  That's a state budget of $0.92 per person.  And, adjusting for inflation, that's $18.90 per person. 

So with Oregon's current population of 3,421,400, that's a grand state budget of $64,664,460.

True, this is layman-grade research.  My methods use data from varying sources, and I do not take into account that severe economic downturns would have pushed that rate down even further.  But the ballpark we're looking at is a state budget of under a hundred million bucks -- less than 1% of the current budget.

So my standing challenge to TABOR supporters is this: Draft up how, exactly, you would spend $100 million per biennium... or present data that show how a TABOR in the original Oregon Constitution would not have limited the state to such a pittance.

Election Projection Forecasts Saxton, SEIU Crawling Back to TK

Election Projection the site that tracked all of the poll results and made predictions in the 2004 race is predicting a Saxton victory this fall. They just started tracking the race in July 14, but it is significant that even though they note a democratic trend, they still pick saxton. Wonder if anyone told TK's pollster, Lisa Grove that her guy isn't really as popular as they think. In other campaign gossip, word is on the streets that the purple haze will make its way to teddy k's campaign this week sending a strong message that fear is an essential ingredient to forgiveness.

Saxton hoping fires will spark support

Saxton is fired up over these fires in Central Oregon and sent out a  press release to beat up Teddy k on the issue:

KULONGOSKI WRONG ON FOREST MANAGEMENT
Saxton to tour Black Crater Fire and visit Sisters
Campaign also releases new Fires radio ad

As the Black Crater Fire grows to nearly 3,000 acres and threatens to evacuate the entire town of Sisters, Ron Saxton will TODAY visit the affected areas and question Governor Ted Kulongoski’s opposition to sound forest management and fire prevention.

“Oregon’s Governor needs to get serious about forest management,” Saxton said. “Not only has Oregon seen more than 500 forest fires this year, but we’ve witnessed destructive fires every summer during the Governor’s term and yet nothing has happened to reduce the fire risk in Oregon.”

Also, a new radio ad accompanied the PR:

Ad Title: Fires
Length: 60 Seconds
Production: McCarthy, Marcus Hennings, Ltd.

RON SAXTON
Another summer has brought us another round of devastating forest fires across the west, including a massive fire near Sisters and more than 500 fires across Oregon.

Yet Governor Kulongoski has left Oregon unprotected – and his opposition to sound forest management has made fires more likely.

This is Ron Saxton

Unlike Governor Kulongoski, I support federal legislation that allows for the removal of dead and dying trees – reducing fire fuel and hastening recovery from fires that do occur - like the Biscuit Fire of 2002.

Forest fires ignore boundaries, so Oregon’s Governor must support these efforts at the federal level.

As Governor, I’ll maintain Oregon’s proud tradition of conservation by working with the federal government, local forest managers, private landowners, researchers and scientists to promote healthy forests and protect against fires.

Because politics as usual – puts even more Oregonians at risk.

I’m Ron Saxton.

Funny that Ron attacks Ted during a natural distaster for political gain and then condemns "politics as usual".

Although Teddy K, not to be left out, plans a tour tomorrow.  The fires are in Westlund's senate district, and although his campaign confirmed he toured the site last night,  no press releases, or radio ads, to that effect could be found.

Where has all the money gone?

As the union leadership lines up behind Teddy K, we ran across another, seemingly unrelated post by the National Journal's Chuck Todd:

...it's probably the biggest mystery of the cycle. It's not clear who is funding get-out-the-vote efforts for the Democrats this year, or more important, who is running them. Is it a coordinated state-based campaign with a loose connection to the Democratic National Committee? Is it labor, and if so, which part -- John Sweeney's the AFL-CIO or Andy Stern's SEIU? And where did all the money from America Coming Together go? Will even half of it make it back into Democratic coffers in some capacity? There are still lots of unanswered questions, and Election Day is less than five months away.

Todd brings up an excellent point, does labor have solidarity now that the break-up of the big guys is filtering down into the states. What happened to all of the national money that helped keep oregon blue in 04? How is the national split affecting Oregon?  Will AFL-CIO and SEIU kiss and make-up with the threat of Saxton looming?  And, even if they do, do they have the capacity, or desire, to pull it out for the d's?  Some say no after the purple haze failed to kill the king in the primary.

The r's have some conservative ballot measures and their first real shot in years at Mahonia Hall to drive their base.  But what do the d's have?

Without sexy progressive ballot measures, D insiders are in a tizzy over what will turn out the vote they need in the house and senate.  One insider even confided that legislative candidates were wary of hitching their horse to TK's wagon (is any candidate in this state polling worse than a 55% disapproval except Ted?)

Usually in these circumstances, the campaigns turn to good old-fashioned fear to mobilize a base, but is Saxton scary enough (if you say yes, see the T-shirt section of the PurpleOregon store)? It almost seems like the same campaign play book is being used against Saxton that was used against Mannix, "too extreme for Oregon" I believe it was titled.  That play almost didn't work as mannix, who was extreme, closed the 16% lead Ted had during the summer months and labor and the d's had to sacrifice 5 house seats to pull out a win.  Can they/ will they do it again?  Will the base bite?  Will the voters buy it?

Update: A clue from one side of the split, from the afl-cio 7/26 email newsletter seeking interns:

Interns will help implement our aggressive grassroots campaign to register, educate, and turn out more than 100,000 union voters across the state. Among our top priorities are sending a pro-worker legislature and governor to Salem, and defeating a pair of ultra-right ballot measures designed to strangle state spending on education, public safety and health care.

Duties will include: research, working with state labor leaders, recruiting and organizing volunteers, member outreach through canvassing and phone-banking, working with our activist database, and assisting staff in planning rallies and other volunteer activities.

Free Speech (for Staff) Dead in Oregon?

A not-so-interesting debate is raging over at BlueOregon on the significance, or not, of a recent Zogby poll on the race for Governor.  But it has highlighted an issue we at PurpleOregon find deeply concerning, that of free speech for those of us "in the biz".

A commenter over there, under the name DifferentSalemStaffer, makes the comment, "I'd be fired for expressing my personal opinions."  This is not a unique problem.  We at PO were invited to be on Thom Hartmann's radio show on KPOJ, but alas, we have the same problem.  Our reliance on "the biz" for financial reasons makes it impossible for us to comment, except anonymously.

Anonymous writings are not new to politics, as our sidebar explains, nor are they less compelling.  If you desperately need to know if a comment was posted by a republican or a democrat before you know what to think about it, you probably aren't getting our point.

But the comment makes us curious, have staffers been intimidated into supporting the status quo?  Do you risk your job if you support someone in another party (or none at all)?  Has anyone out there been told, "Support Westlund and you'll never work this state again?"

Anonymous postings welcome!

   

Parks Playing?

Have the big players from the primary taken their toys and gone home?  Word on the streets is that Grande Ronde has pledged to spend over $2 million for the benefit of Saxton this fall.  Even more interesting is the rumor that Loren Parks is still pissed at Saxton for the slam ads in the primary and plans to play big this fall, and maybe not just against Ron.  The unions, unable to get their members enthusiastic about supporting Ted, are trying to stir the troops with the message (and video) that Ron is public enemy #1. 

Will Parks play hurt both parties? Will the tribes battle for portland market share drive the debate? Will the union's members play follow the leader(ship)?

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of As Oregon Turns...Even the parties may be shut out this election in the shout out between special interests.